Week 4 picks

Another 7-9 week has me sitting at 26-22 for the year, respectable but not good considering the hot start. You would think I would learn my lesson by placing a lock on an east coast team traveling west but I haven’t. A lot of good matchups this week and we should see some close games.

 Buffalo @ Cincinnati                         Line Bills-3

The Bengal Defense is the best that the Bills have seen all year. The Bills have the highest scoring offense in the NFL, they may not get 30 but they should win easily. Buffalo 27 Bengals 17

 Tennessee @ Cleveland                    Line Browns -1

Titans have the best D so far in the league; The Browns offence hasn’t been explosive by any means so I see a low scoring affair. Chris Johnson finally gets it going and breaks a couple big plays. Titans 20 Browns 13

 Pittsburgh @ Houston                                   Line Texans -4

Pittsburgh’s O line is allowing defenders thru like a turnstile, Matt Shaub struggles against extra rushers and the Steelers are the best blitzing team in the league. The Steelers generate enough turnovers to get a key AFC win on the road. Steelers 28          Texans 24

 Detroit @ Dallas                    Line Cowboys -1

I know the Lions are 3-0 and the Stafford to Johnson combo looks unstoppable but my gut is telling me Dallas will win this week. The Lions fell behind early to the Vikings last week on the road before roaring back but Dallas is a much better team then Minnesota. Romo has been finding a way to win games and will do same this week. Cowboys 24          Lions 20

 San Francisco @ Philadelphia                       Line Eagles -8.5

Frank Gore is nicked up but will probably play, if he cant I love rookie back Kendall Hunter and think he can play well provided he is given touches. The Eagles have struggled on D, but that wont matter against the anemic SF offense. Vick will stay upright for 4 quarters and Eagles will cruise.           Eagles 31 49ers 17

 Carolina @ Chicago               Line Bears -6

Newton has kept his squad close in every game so far and I don’t see this being any different. The Bears have not played that well since week one but will get it going this week. Cutler will take some lumps but will find some open guys in the passing game. Bears 24 Panthers 20

 Washington @ St.Louis                     Line PICK

Washingtonhas been impressive especially on D, compared to the Rams who have been extremely disappointing. Sam Bradford is going to be a good QB in this league but it’s hard to succeed when you have no one who can get open or create separation. Running with Hightower and Helu will open up shots down the field for a big play or two on play action and that will be the difference for the Skins. Redskins 21 Rams 17

 New Orleans @ Jacksonville            Line Saints -7

The Saints should have no trouble on the road this week, The Jags are a mess the offense is struggling no matter who plays QB and while the D is solid they are not creating turnovers. Saints have allowed a ton of points but they played GB and Houston two of the highest scoring teams in the NFL. This week they will try and establish the run to keep D off the field and win easily. Saints 34 Jags 10

 Minnesota @ Kansas City                Line Vikings -1

Leslie Frazier has done an absolutely horrible job managing this team so far. Peterson is not being used right and Harvin isn’t either. Percy has been on the field for about 40% of their offensive plays, this is not something I can even begin to understand. McNabb has completed next to nothing down the field. The Chiefs are just as bad but at least they are better coached. Chiefs 24 Vikings 20

 NY Giants @ Arizona                        Line Giants -1

Umenyora is back this week, and Tuck should play. Hakeem Nicks has swelling in his knee but should be ok to play as well. The Cards but they have played well in the red zone(6th) but that could be a product of there schedule, SEA, CAR and Wash.  Giants are much better offensively. Beanie Wells is good to go and the Giants have allowed just over 100 ypg, he will need to play well for cards to win. Giants 27 Cardinals 21

 Atlanta @ Seattle                  Line Falcons -4

Seattle plays well at home, but the Falcons are a much better team who are going to be ready for this game, they need to get their season back on track. Roddy White and Julio Jones have been good but the offensive line has helped let drives stall. Seattle’s offense can’t get going, no running game and Tavaris Jackson is horrible.Atlanta will make enough plays to get thru this game easily. Atlanta 31 Seattle 17

 Denver @ Green Bay            Line Packers -12

Denver travels to Green Bay with the Pack being a well deserved heavy favorite. Green Bay has covered the spread against good teams but tend to let bad teams stay close so I don’t like the big #, Packers have best run D in the league but one of the worst pass D so far they are pretty good in the red zone so that keeps scoring down but Denver should move the ball and will get a garbage time score to keep the pack from covering. Packers 31 Denver 20

 New England @ Oakland                  Line Patriots -4          LOCK

Bill Belichick is a Defensive genius yet his team is on pace to be the worst statistical defense in league history. How do you like that!!! Oakland is much improved and have some talented wide outs and will try to throw the ball around a lot, but their secondary has played extremely bad as well. Tom Brady does not have 2 straight bad games and Pats will win this on the road. Patriots 38 Raiders 28

 Miami @ San Diego              Line Chargers -7

Miami’s horrendously managed, perfect example is being the only team in the league to place a claim on Steve Slayton. Daniel Thomas has been productive Reggie Bush has not and Slayton is a bush clone the only difference is he fumbles more often, now they have to pick up 1.2 million for him to be there.  The Chargers are winning games early on but have not been impressive Vikings and Chiefs both haven’t won yet and were able to stay close. Chargers 24 Dolphins 19

 NY Jets @ Baltimore            Line Ravens -3

The Jets got hammered on the road last week. Mangold being out really affects the o-line and if he is not 100% there will be no stopping Ngata and the Baltimore d-line. Football is won on the lines and right now Baltimore is better on both sides of the ball. Credit Ozzie Newsome for picking up McKinney and Gurode they have been solid. Ravens 28 Jets 21

 Indianapolis @ Tampa Bay               Line Buc -10

We are going to see a ton of Indy in primetime this year this is the second week in a row. Indy got stellar play from their ends last week at home and they almost pulled out the game, going on the road they will not have any advantages. Reggie Wayne praised Painter in the preseason and now he gets what he wants, thou I doubt it will make a difference. The Bucs have played from behind all season that should change this week. Buccaneers 24 Colts 10

 

 

 

 

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